Fragile ground: Labour's most exposed MPs as the two-year mark approaches
As any student of British politics knows, the rhythm of a parliament follows a rough pattern. Over the course of the first year, a new government must find its footing beyond the “honeymoon phase”. The middle two years are the window in which a government actually has to get things done, and the final stretch effectively functions as the opening act for the next general election campaign.
As the Starmer government reaches its two-year mark, that midpoint matters more than usual. Not just because of the Makerfield by-election so close to the horizon and the awaited leadership challenge for that Prime Ministerial position, and not just because of what the government has or has not achieved, but because of what comes next. And for a specific group of Labour MPs, what comes next is the most uncertain electoral terrain of any sitting parliamentarian.
These are the MPs who won seats in July 2024 that, under normal conditions, Labour would not hold. They won because the Conservative vote collapsed, the right fragmented, and a national swing moved simultaneously in Labour's favour. None of those conditions are guaranteed to repeat and several may already be gone.
The question PoliMonitor is asking at the two-year mark is simple: what are those MPs at risk doing about it?
The ground has shifted
Before looking at the MPs themselves, it is worth establishing how much the electoral landscape has changed since they were elected.
YouGov polling after the May 2026 local elections found that just 46% of 2024 Labour voters who voted in those elections stayed loyal to the party. Roughly one in five switched to the Greens. Around one in six voted Liberal Democrat. Only 6% switched to Reform. Labour's losses are running roughly 4 to 1 to the left versus to the right, a fact that fundamentally changes the risk calculation for MPs in different types of seat.
In England's 2025 local elections, Reform took control of 10 councils. In May 2026, Labour suffered its worst London local election results since 1968, with the Greens gaining 278 seats and taking mayoral contests in both Hackney and Lewisham. The most recent YouGov polling puts Reform UK on 25%, with Labour and the Conservatives level on 19% and the Greens on 14%.
This is not a two-party story anymore. For Labour MPs who won on a fragmented right-wing vote, any consolidation of that vote poses direct risk. For Labour MPs in urban or cosmopolitan seats, the Green advance is the more immediate threat. Several in this cohort face both.
In true Westminster fashion, the party that once benefited from everyone else's collapse is now experiencing a version of its own.
This week adds a further dimension.
Thursday's by-election in Makerfield could return Andy Burnham to Westminster and trigger a formal leadership challenge to Sir Keir Starmer. Burnham's spokesperson has ruled out a snap general election if he enters Downing Street, but that pledge emerged only after the Sun reported he was actively considering one, and senior Labour sources made clear MPs would demand he commit "in blood" precisely because they are worried about losing their seats. A pledge made under that kind of pressure, in an environment this volatile, is not a guarantee. A week, as ever, is a long time in politics.
The cohort
The nine Labour MPs sitting on the thinnest majorities from 2024 are
David Pinto-Duschinsky MP (Hendon, majority 15)
Neil Duncan-Jordan MP (Poole, majority 18)
Sam Carling MP (North West Cambridgeshire, majority 39)
Andrew Pakes MP (Peterborough, majority 118)
Ben Coleman MP (Chelsea and Fulham, majority 152)
Luke Myer MP (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, majority 214)
Matt Bishop MP (Forest of Dean, majority 278)
John Whitby MP (Derbyshire Dales, majority 350)
Kevin McKenna MP (Sittingbourne and Sheppey, majority 355).
It is also worth noting Wes Streeting MP, not just for his leadership ambitions but because he holds Ilford North on a majority of just 528. His resignation as Health and Social Care Secretary on 14th May 2026 removed the ministerial insulation that made that majority more manageable. Ilford North now faces pressure from the right via Reform's outer-London advance, and from the left via a sizable Muslim community with documented dissatisfaction over the government's foreign policy positioning. Before his resignation, messages between Streeting and Peter Mandelson from March 2025 became public, in which he described himself as "toast" at the next election and criticised the government for having no economic growth strategy. That private assessment now sits in the public record.
What the MPs are actually doing
For Labour MPs sitting on majorities that most analysts would consider unwinnable at a normal general election, the parliamentary record over the past two years offers a window into how they are processing that reality. There are broadly three positions an MP in this situation can occupy.
The first is to work hard, build a visible local record, and back the incumbency effect to close the gap. The second is a quieter acceptance that the seat was always likely to be temporary, a single term, a career milestone, and then a return to whatever came before. That tends to show up as lower activity and a thinner constituency footprint. The third is the most politically live right now: the possibility that an MP concludes their future does not lie with the Labour Party at all, whether as an independent, or depending on what a leadership change produces.
The parliamentary record cannot tell us which path any individual has chosen. But it can tell us what they are doing with their time.
Among those clearly pursuing the first path, the evidence is consistent.
Carling has tabled 38 written questions with a clear local flavour, contributed over 6,700 words across two major pieces of legislation, and led an adjournment debate on safeguarding in small religious organisations. Myer has built a coherent industrial-community record, with written questions spanning Teesside economic development, small modular reactors, and asbestos compensation for former industrial workers, and legislation work directly tied to his seat's steel interests. Whitby has pursued a similarly grounded approach across energy, rural broadband, and ceramics industry jobs, with petition data showing 1.28% of the total signatures on the ceramics industry petition came from Derbyshire Dales, a constituency-specific figure that signals active local mobilisation.
Others present a more mixed picture.
Bishop sits on the Justice Select Committee and has made substantial legislation contributions, but his written question record has a narrower local dimension and he has led no adjournment debates and co-sponsored no bills, a thinner locally-facing footprint than his electoral exposure might suggest. Coleman is active on the Health and Social Care Committee and has pursued sustained written question work, but in a seat where the Green and progressive fragmentation risk is arguably more acute than Reform, the constituency-facing dimension of his record does not obviously reflect that specific pressure. Pakes and McKenna are steady without being distinctive. McKenna's committee work on Women and Equalities and a notable personal intervention disclosing he is living with HIV during National HIV Testing Week in February 2025 show genuine parliamentary identity, but his written question total of 16 is the lowest in the cohort and leaves a thinner paper trail than his majority arguably warrants.
Duncan-Jordan occupies a category of his own. He has voted against his party 11 times, with rebellions spanning welfare reform, higher education fees, and criminal justice legislation. He was among four MPs to have the Labour whip removed in July 2025, with the whip restored in November 2025. His is the most active profile in the cohort in terms of independent political positioning and in a seat with a majority of 18, that is either a survival strategy built on local credibility, or a sign of where he is heading. Possibly both.
The question the data raises
At the two-year midpoint, the MPs in this cohort face a version of the same choice.
Stay with the party and hope that incumbency, activity, and a favourable wind is enough.
Accept quietly that one term is the outcome and wind down accordingly.
Begin to consider whether the Labour label is an asset or a liability in their specific seat, and what the alternatives might look like.
The parliamentary record cannot answer that question. But it can paint a partial picture of which MP intends to fight for their seat and how. That distinction will matter considerably more if Burnham wins on Thursday, launches a challenge, and the question of a general election becomes live again, with or without a formal pledge to the contrary.
PoliMonitor will continue tracking this cohort as the parliament develops. As the two-year mark arrives, the question of who is doing the work is one worth having on record and monitoring.
